Chapter 1 · The information problem
The information problem
Development businesses rarely fail for lack of expertise. They fail because the information needed to make a decision was somewhere nobody looked.
9 minute read
Ask a developer running three schemes what keeps them awake and they will rarely say they do not understand development. They understand it perfectly well. What they cannot do is find the one email, from eleven months ago, in which the structural engineer said the party wall detail depended on a survey that was never commissioned.
A modest residential scheme in the UK will generate several thousand discrete pieces of information before practical completion. Planning application documents and consultee responses. A design and access statement, a transport statement, an ecology survey, a daylight and sunlight assessment. Pre-commencement conditions and their discharge correspondence. Tender packs, subcontractor quotes, clarifications, and the six versions of the drawing that only one subcontractor is actually pricing. Site photographs. Delivery notes. Two hundred WhatsApp messages that contain instructions nobody minuted.
None of this is exotic. It is the ordinary substrate of a development business. The problem is that it lives in six systems that do not speak to each other — an email client, a shared drive, a phone camera roll, an accounting package, a messaging app and somebody's head — and the person who most needs it is the person with the least time to look.
Where the money actually leaks
The expensive failures in small development are usually retrieval failures dressed up as something else.
- A site is investigated for six weeks before someone reads the 2016 refusal that identified the same access constraint you have just paid a highways consultant to identify again.
- Two subcontract quotes are compared on headline price when one excludes scaffolding, temporary works and making good, and the exclusion was on page four.
- A variation is instructed verbally on site, delivered, and then disputed nine months later because the only record is a photograph with no caption.
- A funder asks for the evidence behind an appraisal assumption and the answer takes three days to reconstruct, badly.
In each case the expertise existed. Somebody in the chain knew. The information simply did not arrive at the moment of decision in a form that could be acted on.
What AI is actually good at here
Strip away the marketing and current language models do a small number of things unusually well: they read long documents quickly, they summarise with reasonable fidelity when the source is in front of them, they extract structured fields from unstructured text, they compare two documents and surface differences, and they draft. That is a narrow list. It is also, awkwardly, almost exactly the list of tasks eating the week of a development manager.
What AI is bad at, reliably
- Anything requiring current data it was not given. A model does not know your local plan unless you hand it the local plan.
- Arithmetic at scale. It will produce a plausible-looking appraisal with a wrong number in the middle. Calculate in a spreadsheet or a calculator; use the model for commentary.
- Legal, planning, structural and valuation conclusions. It will give you one confidently. It is not qualified, insured, or accountable.
- Knowing when it does not know. Absent explicit instruction, a model fills gaps rather than flagging them.
Every practical technique in this book is built around that split. Use the machine for the reading, the extraction, the comparison and the first draft. Keep the decision, and the record of the decision, with the professional.